Weather Notice EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
Issued by the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS
June 11, 2026
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
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Synopsis: El Niño conditions are observed and are expected to intensify during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27.
El Niño conditions developed over the past month, as evidenced by above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index was +0.7°C, with the westernmost (Niño-4) and easternmost (Niño-1+2) indices at +0.7°C and +2.1°C, respectively. The equatorial subsurface temperature index (180°–100°W average) decreased over the past month, but significantly above-average subsurface temperatures persisted in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Low-level westerly and high-level easterly wind anomalies were evident over the central equatorial Pacific. Convection was slightly above average over the central and east-central equatorial Pacific and near or below average over Indonesia. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were negative. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the onset of El Niño conditions.
The North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) average, including the NCEP CFSv2, forecasts that El Niño will intensify during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026–27. The high confidence in El Niño is also related to anomalously high ocean heat content and expanding westerly wind anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. There is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November–January [Fig. 8], which would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record since 1950. Even very strong El Niño events do not lead to the expected impact everywhere, but the strongest events can significantly shift the probabilities toward the expected outcomes (see the CPC outlook for seasonal anomaly probabilities). In summary, El Niño conditions are present and are expected to strengthen during the winter of 2026–27 in the Northern Hemisphere.
This discussion is a joint effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the NOAA National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center website (Current El Niño/La Niña Conditions and Expert Discussions). A probabilistic intensity forecast is available here. The next ENSO diagnostic discussion is scheduled for July 9, 2026.
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
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